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Medium/Idea: Lula and Flavius Appear Technically Tied in 1st and 2nd Turn

Summary by UOL
Research Media/Idea released today shows President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) technically tied in the first and second round of the presidential election.The Media/Idea interviewed 2,000 voters by phone between days 25 and 28

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Lean Left

Research Media/Idea released today shows President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) technically tied in the first and second round of the presidential election.The Media/Idea interviewed 2,000 voters by phone between days 25 and 28

·São Paulo, Brazil
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Left

The petist appears numerically ahead in both scenarios, but the difference is lower than the margin of error

·São Paulo, Brazil
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The Meio/Idea research released on Wednesday (30) shows Lula (PT) with 39.4% in the first round stimulated, against 38.4% of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), difference of 1 point within the margin of error of 2.2 points. In the second round, the picture is repeated: 48.5% to 48%, also technical tie. In the spontaneous, Lula has 31.5% and Flávio, 30.5%. [...]

Lift released on Wednesday (30) shows the two in technical tie within the margin of error of 2.2 points; in the 1st round stimulated, Lula has 39.4% and Flávio, 38.4% Research Meio/Idea disclosed on Wednesday (30) points technical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in a [...]

Pesquisa Meio/Idea for the 2026 election, released on Wednesday (30), points out that president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) maintained the triple tie in the spontaneous surveys, from the first round and in the second round, the same scenario of the last survey, 20 days ago. In the spontaneous survey, Lula varied from 30.7% to [...]

Research by Instituto Ideia shows Lula with 39.4% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 38.4% in the first round; in the second, the two also appear technically tied. Read in the Tribuna do Paraná.

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Folha de S.Paulo broke the news in São Paulo, Brazil on Wednesday, September 30, 2026.
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