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Brazil's Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Locked in Tight Race as Vote Nears

  • On Tuesday, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva statistically tied in a simulated runoff, with Bolsonaro at 47.7% and Lula at 47.6%.
  • In a first-round scenario, the poll indicates Lula would receive 45.3% of voter support, followed by Bolsonaro at 42.2%, Renan Santos with 5.2%, and Augusto Cury with 2%.
  • A September 23 poll had Lula leading the senator 47.7% to 47.4%, while earlier data showed Lula at 45.8% and Bolsonaro at 43.4% in the first round.
  • If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 election, the two frontrunners will advance to a runoff on October 25.
  • Lula continues his reelection campaign for the Workers' Party, speaking during a rally in Belem, Brazil, on Monday.
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Lean Right

The break-up of Brazilian President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva from his main rival, Senator Flavio Bolsonar, in the presidential race to date, would have been about three percentage points, as evidenced by the results of the AtlasIntel poll commissioned by Bloomberg.

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SpaceMoney broke the news on Monday, September 28, 2026.
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