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Brazil's Lula Widens First-Round Lead, Remains Tied with Bolsonaro in Runoff Polls

  • On Monday, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula leading the first-round election with 42% of the vote, while remaining statistically tied with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff.
  • The leftist incumbent widened his lead from a previous survey that had him at 40% to Bolsonaro's 37%, though a September 21 poll showed a tighter 46% to 45% runoff margin.
  • Nexus surveyed 2,000 people between September 25 and 27, yielding a margin of error of 2 percentage points. Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado each polled at 5%, while Renan Santos held 4%.
  • If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners will advance to a runoff election scheduled for October 25.
  • Lula's narrow runoff lead of 46% to 44% remains within the survey's margin of error, underscoring the competitive nature of Brazil's election ahead of next month's voting.
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65 Articles

Lean Right

Brazil's high-stakes election pits incumbent against imprisoned former president's heir

·Ankara, Türkiye
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Lean Right

With the ban on betting, improvements in the Bolsa Familia plan and other initiatives of strong popular support such as the double weekly franc, it achieved a breakthrough in the polls.But the numbers released on Monday, while showing these changes, clarify that they are not enough to break the parity that would be defined in the balloting.

·Buenos Aires, Argentina
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Left

The president has five points of advantage for the opponent of extreme right, according to the uprising

·São Paulo, Brazil
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Lean Right

Candidate of the Liberal Party, of extreme right, has confirmed presence in the debate organized by Globo. So far, Lula has not confirmed will attend.

·Lisboa, Portugal
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  • 60% of the sources lean Right
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CNN Brasil broke the news in São Paulo, Brazil on Monday, September 21, 2026.
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