The BCB Projects a Contraction of -3.6% of GDP in 2026
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Among the factors envisaged by the Central Bank of Bolivia (BCB) are the contraction of the construction sector, the increase in imported inputs, the possible impact of the El Niño climate on the agricultural sector and the deterioration of the real income of households, which has accelerated in recent years.
The issuing entity agrees with the IMF and the World Bank forecasts. Although the situation remains complex, there would be a significant reduction in inflation compared to 2025.
“The gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to close 2026 at around -3.6%, as a result of the contraction in the construction sector, higher costs in imported inputs, climate effects and the deterioration of the real income of households, which has been accelerating in recent years,” says the Central Bank of Bolivia in its Inflation and Monetary Policy Report, second quarter 2026, published a few days ago on its website.
The report notes a decline in economic activity, loss of employment, lack of real income and an increase in poverty.
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