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Talk of Diesel Export Ban Deepens US Crude Futures’ Discount to Global Benchmark
Analysts said a ban could cut US refinery runs by 12% and fill Gulf Coast storage within a month.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded as much as $12.02 a barrel under Brent futures on Thursday, the largest discount since May 6, as investors price in potential stranded diesel.
President Donald Trump said Tuesday he backed a diesel export ban, though the White House denied reports of a 90-day prohibition on Wednesday, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright argued it would not control surging prices.
Wood Mackenzie analysts said a diesel export ban would redirect a 700,000 bpd oversupply into storage, filling Gulf Coast inventories within a month, potentially forcing US refiners to cut crude runs by 12 per cent.
Domestic diesel prices hit a record $6.528 a gallon this week, stirring political uproar, but analysts warn the crude discount indicates potential increases in gasoline prices while diesel costs may rise again.
Surging freight rates driven by the war with Iran have increased shipping costs to around $50 million, while inflation fears threaten the Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections.