In the latest Macro Signposts, PIMCO’s Tiffany Wilding discusses how conflicting signals about U.S. labor markets complicate the Federal Reserve’s pursuit of its dual mandate. Recent trends are sending confusing signals about the health of the U.S. labor market. Since late 2025, the employment/population ratio has moved lower even as the unemployment rate has declined. This appears to be without precedent in modern history: Since 1949, for every…
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