Japan’s Faster GDP, Wage Growth Support BOJ Interest-Rate Hike
Stronger second-quarter growth and the biggest wage gains in nearly 30 years have reinforced expectations for a 25-basis-point increase, economists said.
- Japan's economy expanded 1.4% in the second quarter, up from an earlier 1.1% estimate, while wages jumped the most in nearly three decades in July, strengthening the case for a Bank of Japan rate hike next week.
- With the Middle East conflict, a tight domestic job market, and rising import costs from a weak yen driving inflation, the BOJ is considering speeding up rate hikes to roughly once a quarter.
- Consensus view points to a conventional 25 basis point increase to 1.25% next week; People familiar with the Bank say it has little appetite for a 50 basis point hike to avoid shocking the public.
- Nobuyasu Atago, a former BOJ official at Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute, added the Bank will probably hike to 1.25% this month and do another increase in December or January next year as a precaution against inflation risks.
- Doves in the nine-member Board see a need to move cautiously as the policy rate approaches neutral levels estimated between 1.1% and 2.5%, while Ayano Sato emphasized the need to focus on downside risks to growth.
15 Articles
15 Articles
Why the BOJ will bet small on rate hikes now to avoid a bigger shock later
Consensus view points to a conventional 25 bps increase to 1.25% next week; central bank has to convince markets it is not behind the curve on inflation Read more at The Business Times.
Global Market: Japan GDP revision signals resilience as markets brace for BOJ policy move
apans Q2 GDP grew at an annualised 1.4%, beating the initial 1.1% estimate but missing forecasts. The revision reflected a smaller decline in business investment, while consumption remained unchanged. Stronger real wage growth and resilient corporate spending may reinforce expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.25% next week.
Japan’s GDP Growth Revised Higher, Backing BOJ Rate Hike Case
Japan’s economy grew at a faster clip in the second quarter than initially estimated while wages jumped the most in nearly three decades in July, supporting the case for a widely expected Bank of Japan interest-rate hike next week.
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