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Japan’s Faster GDP, Wage Growth Support BOJ Interest-Rate Hike

Stronger second-quarter growth and the biggest wage gains in nearly 30 years have reinforced expectations for a 25-basis-point increase, economists said.

  • Japan's economy expanded 1.4% in the second quarter, up from an earlier 1.1% estimate, while wages jumped the most in nearly three decades in July, strengthening the case for a Bank of Japan rate hike next week.
  • With the Middle East conflict, a tight domestic job market, and rising import costs from a weak yen driving inflation, the BOJ is considering speeding up rate hikes to roughly once a quarter.
  • Consensus view points to a conventional 25 basis point increase to 1.25% next week; People familiar with the Bank say it has little appetite for a 50 basis point hike to avoid shocking the public.
  • Nobuyasu Atago, a former BOJ official at Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute, added the Bank will probably hike to 1.25% this month and do another increase in December or January next year as a precaution against inflation risks.
  • Doves in the nine-member Board see a need to move cautiously as the policy rate approaches neutral levels estimated between 1.1% and 2.5%, while Ayano Sato emphasized the need to focus on downside risks to growth.
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  • 71% of the sources are Center
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Bloomberg broke the news in New York, United States on Monday, September 7, 2026.
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