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Top The Tally Room News

Early voting in the Tasmanian state election explained

Hobart, Australia · Hobart

Early voting in the Tasmanian state election explained

100% Left coverage: 1 sources

Can I vote online? What electorate do I live in? What is Hare-Clark? All your questions about voting early in the Tasmanian state election answered.See the Story

NSW government bill would end council countbacks

New South Wales · New South Wales

NSW government bill would end council countbacks

There is a bill currently before the NSW Legislative Council which makes a number of changes to how local government elections work in New South Wales. The bill has been referred to an inquiry that is currently open for submissions. The bill’s focus has been on a change to end the option for local councils to use a private election provider to run their elections. This is long overdue and I have already made a submission in support of this claus…Read Article

DemosAU: Liberal 34.0, Labor 26.3, Greens 15.1 in Tasmania - The Poll Bludger

Tasmania · Tasmania

DemosAU: Liberal 34.0, Labor 26.3, Greens 15.1 in Tasmania - The Poll Bludger

A second poll for the Tasmanian state election is much more encouraging for the Liberals than the first, with both recording strong support for independents.See the Story

Who makes the 3CP, where?

The three-candidate-preferred (3CP) count has become a topic of more interest in recent elections because of close races where the dynamic of who makes it into the top two can decide who wins. But it’s also an interesting statistic which can tell us more then is revealed by the two-party-preferred vote, while being a bit simpler than primary vote statistics. So for this post, likely my final post analysing the 2025 federal election, I look at wh…Australia · Australia Read Article

Who else do independent voters vote for?

There were 21 seats in 2025 where an independent candidate made the two-candidate-preferred count. For today’s post, I want to explore what we can tell about those voters from their other voting patterns. For voters who ended up with the independent in the two-candidate-preferred count: how did they cast their primary vote, and where did they rank Labor or Coalition? For some of this analysis, it is important to analyse seats where the independe…Australia · Australia Read Article

3CP data sheds light on the close races

Late on Monday, the AEC transitioned the election results website to its final archive form. You can now find the results at results.aec.gov.au, and the previous link no longer works. There is probably enough fresh data to fuel a whole week of blog posts. I am planning to return to the question of the national 2PP and 2PP preference flows by party, as well as some deeper analysis of the 3CP trends across the country. For this post, I am going to…New South Wales · New South Wales Read Article

The make-up of the marginal seat list

Earlier this month I published a blog post which discovered that the average 2CP margin of victory has not actually been getting smaller at recent federal elections. I didn’t end up including the chart in the post, but I also identified that the numbers of marginal seats hasn’t been going up over time, despite a number of formerly-safe seats now becoming marginal non-classic seats. But I wanted to explore the make-up of those marginal seats over…Australia · Australia Read Article

How the vote split between the early vote and election day

Last month I posted about the increase in the proportion of votes that were cast early (postal, pre-poll and remote) as opposed to those cast on election day. 55.7% of votes were cast early, with just 43.6% casting their votes on the day. For today’s post I am looking at how those voters actually voted, and how it’s changed over time. Starting with the two-party-preferred vote, applying my estimate of the Bradfield 2PP, the gap between election …Queensland, Australia · Queensland Read Article

How the swing was distributed, and how the pendulum performed

Now that we have a complete two-party-preferred vote for all of Australia, we can look at the distribution of seat margins and swings across the country. For this post, I have produced a number of charts which show the distribution of seats by two-party-preferred result, and also by two-party-preferred swing. I also attempt to chart out the two-candidate-preferred swings in non-classic seats, or at least those which have a valid swing compared t…Australia · Australia Read Article

Tasmanians Head to Another State Election

100% Left coverage: 2 sources

Sarah Ferguson presents Australia's premier daily current affairs program, delivering agenda-setting public affairs journalism and interviews that hold the powerful to account. Plus political analysis from Laura Tingle.Sarah Ferguson · Hobart See the Story

How seats changed relative to Australia in 2025

I’ve previously posted a number of times before about the dataset I have compiled of election results since 2004, adjusted for 2025 electoral boundaries. Most recently, prior to the election, I specifically did a comparison of the 2007 and 2022 electoral map: two elections with similar two-party-preferred votes and a similar number of seats with a two-party-preferred majority for each major party. Unfortunately there is no clear comparison for t…Australia · Australia Read Article

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