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With just a few primary elections to go, the competitive Senate map keeps shifting

Recent polls show Democrats with leads in some Republican-held races, but prediction markets still favor Republicans to keep Senate control.

  • Democrats are targeting Republican Party Senate seats in Alaska, Maine, and North Carolina during the 2026 midterms, with less than 100 days remaining until the election.
  • Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, requiring Democrats to defend existing seats while flipping multiple competitive states to regain control.
  • In Maine, where President Donald Trump lost by about 7 points, and North Carolina, which he won by about 3 points, Democrats view these GOP-held seats as top targets.
  • Prediction markets favored Republicans on Monday, giving them a 56 percent chance of maintaining Senate control on Polymarket, even as recent polling shows competitive races across multiple states.
  • Midterms historically act as a referendum on the sitting president; Trump's approval ratings have fluctuated amid economic concerns, potentially influencing voter decisions on affordability and healthcare access.
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Bias Distribution

  • 40% of the sources lean Left
40% Left

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npr broke the news in Washington, United States on Monday, July 27, 2026.
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