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Bank of England to Hold Rates but Energy Shock Stirs Talk of a Hike

Markets see the Bank of England holding rates, but a 20% jump in gas and crude prices is lifting expectations of a later hike, Reuters said.

  • On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75%, though investors are watching for any hint that surging energy prices might force it to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent borrowing cost increase.
  • British natural gas and Brent crude futures have surged 20% this month, threatening to push inflation further above the Bank's 2% target, which the central bank has missed in all but three months of the last five years.
  • Financial data shows the average five-year fixed mortgage rate at 5.83%, while most economists polled by Reuters last week expected the Bank to maintain the 3.75% rate through year-end.
  • The Telegraph reported Tuesday that the Bank may cease sales of 20-year and 30-year gilts, a shift that could offer fiscal room for Finance Minister John Healey ahead of his October 28 budget statement.
  • Financial markets currently point to an 80% chance of a rate hike in November, with analysts from investment banking firm Evercore ISI stating that "Nowhere is the gap between market pricing and policymaker expectations more stark than in the UK.
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  • 67% of the sources are Center
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IFA Magazine broke the news on Wednesday, September 16, 2026.
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