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Warsh’s “Quiet Fed” Approach Adds a Hawkish Call at Jackson Hole

Warsh said inflation risks could justify tighter policy, and traders raised September hike odds to 60.4%, according to CME FedWatch.

  • On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, pushing market expectations for a September rate hike to 60.4%.
  • Warsh pledged to return inflation to the 2% target while advocating for a "quieter Fed," emphasizing that monetary policy must remain independent and not bend to fiscal pressures from the Treasury.
  • Market watchers, including Deutsche Bank, noted the address's "decidedly hawkish direction," while John Luke Tyner of Aptus Capital Advisors highlighted Warsh's commitment to the 2% PCE inflation metric.
  • Markets currently peg September hike odds at 57%, according to CME Fedwatch, though Bill Adams of Fifth Third Bank warned that upcoming payrolls data could raise the bar for a hike.
  • Future rate hikes remain expected at the September and December Federal Open Market Committee meetings, despite Gavekal identifying potential friction with the Treasury over long-term securities management.
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Zero Hedge broke the news in Sofia, Bulgaria on Sunday, August 30, 2026.
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