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Makerfield by-Election Polling: What to Look Out For

Survation and other constituency polls show Burnham leading by 5 to 12 points as questions grow over right-wing vote splitting and poll reliability.

  • On Thursday, June 18, 2026, voters in Makerfield head to the polls for a by-election that could trigger a Labour leadership contest between Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.
  • Former Labour MP Josh Simons triggered the by-election by resigning on May 14, stating the government had "overseen the managed decline of towns like mine" and arguing Burnham could provide the "urgent, radical, brave reform we need."
  • Trailing the Labour frontrunner by 10 points in recent polling, Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon faces Burnham in the contest, while other parties including the Green Party, Conservatives, and Restore Britain also vie for the seat.
  • Though polls show Burnham leading, the campaign has been marked by controversy regarding both main candidates, including scrutiny over his past as a "career politician" and Kenyon's recent online comments.
  • A Reform UK victory would indicate potential losses for Labour in former strongholds, potentially advancing the political ambitions of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, as analysts view this by-election as a critical moment for the UK political scene.
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The Independent (US) broke the news in United States on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.
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