History Says Divided Government Good For Stock Market, With 1 Exception. Prediction Markets Now Say There's A 92% Chance Of Dems Taking The House

History Says Divided Government Good For Stock Market, With 1 Exception. Prediction Markets Now Say There's A 92% Chance Of Dems Taking The House

Wall Street has long claimed gridlock in Washington is good for stocks, and the historical data mostly agrees. But one government configuration breaks that rule entirely, and prediction markets now put its odds at 92%.

Polymarket traders estimate the probability of a Democratic victory in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3 elections at 91%, while the probability of a Republican victory is only 9%

Polymarket traders estimate the probability of a Democratic victory in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3 elections at 91%, while the probability of a Republican victory is only 9%.The probability of a Democratic victory has...

US Midterm Elections 2026: Republicans vs Democrats, who will control US House, Senate? Prediction markets reveal odds

Ahead of the 2028 presidential elections, the November “midterm” election will test the waters for Trump's party, whose second term has largely been controversial. Here's what prediction markets — Kalshi and Polymarket – suggest on the probable outcome of the polls.

History Says Divided Government Good For Stock Market, With 1 Exception. Prediction Markets Now Say There’s A 92% Chance Of Dems Taking The House

The post History Says Divided Government Good For Stock Market, With 1 Exception. Prediction Markets Now Say There’s A 92% Chance Of Dems Taking The House appeared first on 24/7 Wall St.. Gridlock in Washington is good for stocks, according to a popular Wall Street rule of thumb. The idea returned…