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US job growth expected to slow in September; unemployment rate likely steady

Economists expect 84,000 new jobs and steady wage gains as layoffs stay low, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains stable.

  • On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its September nonfarm payrolls report, providing critical insight into U.S. labor market stability as the Federal Reserve weighs its next policy move.
  • Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted on Thursday that labor conditions have stabilized, citing payroll gains that broadened to many sectors despite recent volatility and low layoffs.
  • Wage growth is forecast at 3.2% for September, while first-time unemployment insurance claims edged down to 197,000 last week, reflecting resilient labor market conditions.
  • Market expectations for an October rate hike dropped to 37% on Wednesday after cooler inflation data, with New York Fed President John Williams suggesting policymakers might wait.
  • Investors remain focused on elevated long-term Treasury yields, driven by Washington's enormous deficits and growing government debt supply, a challenge the Fed cannot immediately resolve.
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Business Insider broke the news in New York, United States on Thursday, October 1, 2026.
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