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UN lowers forecast for global economic growth in 2026 over Mideast energy crisis
U.N. economists said global inflation is projected to reach 3.9% this year as energy and transport costs climb.
On Tuesday, the United Nations lowered its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.7%, citing Middle East crises and rising oil prices as primary drivers of the downgrade.
Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil and energy shipments, intensifying regional tensions and triggering energy shocks that ripple through global markets.
Shantanu Mukherjee, director of economic analysis at the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, noted that developing countries face inflation rising from 4.2% to 5.2%, while developed nations see increases to 2.9%.
This 2.5% growth rate represents one of the weakest periods this century outside the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 global financial crisis, according to United Nations officials.
Global growth could further decline to 2.1% "in a more adverse scenario," United Nations economists warned, if Middle East energy shocks persist and intensify throughout 2026.