US EditionUK's OBR publishes economic outlook ahead of Reeves' budget speech
The Office for Budget Responsibility's early publication caused market shifts and revealed a £26 billion tax rise by 2029-30, prompting an investigation into the leak.
- On Wednesday the Office for Budget Responsibility unexpectedly published its November 2025 Economic and Fiscal Outlook online, making the full forecast available before Reeves's 12:30 p.m. Commons speech.
- The OBR apologised and described the release as a technical error, launching an investigation after its forecasts appeared more than 30–40 minutes early ahead of Reeves's Budget speech.
- The leaked forecast from the OBR lists measures including tax rises of £26b by 2029-30, a threshold freeze raising £14.9 billion, and the removal of the two-child benefit cap costing £3 billion, according to Reeves.
- Broadcasters pulled away from PMQs as gilts moved sharply, with borrowing costs falling and Conservative MPs demanding an investigation into the "unprecedented" leak on Wednesday.
- The OBR now forecasts growth of 1.5% this year while trimming medium-term growth projections, widening government borrowing headroom to £22 billion and adding 780,000 basic-rate, 920,000 higher-rate, and 4,000 additional-rate taxpayers by at least 2028/29.
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64 Articles
UK growth forecasts lowered from next year
The UK economy is expected to grow at a slower rate than previously expected from next year, the government’s official forecaster has said.The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which maps out how the economy is set to perform based on the government’s tax and spending policies, increased its growth expectations for this year, but downgraded its forecast for the following four.It said lower productivity growth – a measure of output of the e…
An OBR report was accidentally published too early. It shows new tax increases in billions. Finance Minister Reeves had excluded further increases in the previous year.
The most chaotic Budget in living memory ends in shambles – before it’s even started
The accidental leak of details of Rachel Reeves’ Budget by the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) before she got to her feet was one final bit of chaos for this make-or-break Budget, says political editor David Maddox
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