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IMF raises UK outlook but warns political turmoil could hurt growth

The IMF said the UK remained resilient and projected 1% growth in 2026, but warned higher energy prices could lift inflation temporarily.

  • The International Monetary Fund raised Britain's 2026 growth forecast to 1% today, up from 0.8%, citing "more momentum than expected" but warning that the Iran war and "domestic uncertainty" could dampen prospects.
  • Figures released last week showed the economy grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026, with rebounds in retailing and construction providing the pre-war momentum driving the Fund's improved outlook.
  • The IMF reported that holding rates for the remainder of the year should be sufficient to bring inflation back to the 2% target by 2027, even as energy prices rise "temporarily."
  • On Monday, British Chancellor Rachel Reeves called the upgrade "proof" of the government's "right economic plan," warning that "putting our stability at risk" by challenging Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer would harm families and businesses.
  • The Fund reinforced the need to stick to deficit reduction plans targeting a balanced budget by 2029/30, while warning of "difficult choices" regarding rising spending pressures on ageing, defence, and the climate transition.
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Bloomberg broke the news in United States on Monday, May 18, 2026.
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