US EditionKevin Hassett Retakes Lead in Fed Chief Race on Kalshi After Being Briefly Overtaken by Warsh
Warsh leads with a 46% nomination chance on Kalshi after Hassett's odds dropped from 77% amid adviser concerns over his closeness to Trump, sources said.
- On Monday, traders on Kalshi marked Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve governor, the narrow favorite with roughly 46% versus about 39% for Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council.
- Pushback from high-level figures with direct access to President Donald Trump last week cut Kevin Hassett's odds from 77% as advisers raised concerns about his closeness to Trump.
- Market data show rapid swings with Kevin Hassett's odds dropping from 77% last week while Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve governor , rose from about 10%, amid canceled interviews earlier this month.
- The market responded after President Donald Trump injected new ambiguity by telling the Wall Street Journal on Friday that Kevin Warsh had risen to the top tier, prompting swift repricing on Kalshi.
- Interviews with prospective Fed chair candidates were later rescheduled and held last week, keeping the vetting active amid adviser doubts and rapid odds swings that keep the contest dynamic.
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11 Articles
A Tale of Two Kevins—How Markets View the Leading Federal Reserve Candidates
And then there were two. President Donald Trump has narrowed the field for the next Federal Reserve chair to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh—and the dichotomy between the two men could have implications for Wall Street. Trump said last week that Warsh climbed to the top of the list to succeed Chair Jerome Powell as head of the central bank next year, following a 45-minute meeting on Dec. 10. H…
Kevin Hassett regains lead over Kevin Warsh on prediction markets in neck-and-neck Fed chairman race
Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are in a neck-and-neck race for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve – with the lead changing hands on prediction markets several times this week.
Traders at the market forecasting platform Kalshi believe that U.S. President Donald Trump's chances of choosing Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman have now surpassed those of another frontrunner, Kevin Hassett.
Why Is Kevin Warsh Suddenly Favored To Be Trump's New Fed Chair Nominee?
Former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh has emerged as the new frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve. What Happened: On Tuesday, Polymarket traders assign Warsh a 46% probability to be President Trump’s nominee—up from 39% on Monday and a sharp rise from 11% one…
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- 60% of the sources lean Right
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