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Trump Says US Doesn't Need A War '9,500 Miles Away,' But Do Prediction Markets Trust His Taiwan Policy?

Trump said he made no commitment on Taiwan and paused a roughly $14 billion arms package after discussing the issue with Xi Jinping.

  • On Friday, President Donald Trump wrapped his Beijing summit by telling reporters he discussed Taiwan arms sales with Chinese President Jinping, stating, "the last thing we need right now is a war that's 9,500 miles away."
  • Trump confirmed that 1982 Six Assurances "came up" in talks with Jinping, as he paused a roughly $14 billion arms package for Taiwan that has sat ready for approval since March.
  • While official United States doctrine remains "strategic ambiguity," Trump made "no commitment either way" regarding Taiwan's defense, responding, "I'm not going to say that. There's only one person that knows that, you know who it is?"
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that United States policy toward Taiwan is "unchanged," warning that any forced change to the status quo would be "a terrible mistake."
  • Bloomberg Economics modeled that a US-China war over Taiwan could cost the global economy roughly $10.6 trillion, or about 9.6% of GDP, with markets pricing an invasion by 2026 at 7% and by 2027 at 18%.
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Whether the US will supply further weapons for Taiwan remains open for the time being. Trump sees this as a trump card for negotiations.

·Zürich, Switzerland
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Political Wire broke the news in New York, United States on Friday, May 15, 2026.
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