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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast to Intensify and Threaten Gulf Coast
The hurricane center said the storm could reach Category 2 strength as watches spread and Gulf energy producers shut in 25% of crude output.
Tropical Storm Isaias is strengthening rapidly and will likely become a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph on Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center. The system is tracking toward the Gulf Coast for a potential landfall late Friday or early Saturday.
Forecasting models remain split on the storm's path, the National Hurricane Center noted. Newer AI-based models suggest an eastward shift toward Alabama or the Florida Panhandle, while traditional physics-based models indicate a slower trajectory toward Mississippi or Louisiana.
Offshore producers have shut in roughly 25% of the Gulf's daily crude oil production and more than 16% of natural gas output, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. Emergency agencies across Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana have issued watches.
In Alabama, the city of Gulf Shores canceled the 55th annual National Shrimp Festival, which was expected to draw more than 250,000 visitors. Mississippi Emergency Management Agency Director Stephen "Mac" McCraney activated unified response planning and moved equipment to coastal staging sites.
By Friday morning, forecasters project Isaias will intensify to a Category 2 hurricane, potentially breaking a 121-year-old record for the latest seasonal formation. Potential storm surge includes 5 to 7 feet from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass, with impacts continuing into Saturday.