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‘If It Expires, It Expires,’ Trump Tells NYT About US-Russia Nuclear Treaty

The treaty capped deployed warheads at 1,550 each, but its expiration could enable rapid arsenals growth amid China’s nuclear buildup, raising global arms race risks.

  • New START treaty will lapse on February 5, 2026, removing numerical limits on deployed warheads as no extension appears forthcoming.
  • Amid China's estimated 600-warhead expansion, pressure is growing in Washington, D.C., where government officials, conservative pundits, weapons-industry leaders and congressional hawks call for a larger U.S. arsenal.
  • Pavel Podvig cautioned that uploads could begin quickly, saying, `I think what will follow is that the US will move to increase the number of deployed warheads` on 400 Minuteman III ICBMs; Russia holds 2,600 warheads in storage.
  • Beginning on February 6th, legal caps disappear as U.S. and Russian leaders face no barriers to expanding arsenals, with arms-control advocates warning this may trigger a costly new arms race.
  • After the lapse, states could MIRV missiles, load Trident-II SLBMs with more warheads, develop SLCM-N, while Russia deploys Poseidon nuclear torpedoes and Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles, sparking a global anti-nuclear movement.
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Slate.fr broke the news in France on Wednesday, January 7, 2026.
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