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This year's El Nino-driven heat could cause nearly half a million more deaths, group says

The report says poorer countries will bear the heaviest burden, with the Sahel expected to see about 66,800 additional deaths.

  • On Wednesday, the Chicago-based Climate Impact Lab released a report warning that El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027.
  • Amplified by human-caused climate change, this El Niño event could raise global land temperatures by about 1.2 Celsius , producing 44% more extremely hot days than typical.
  • The Global South faces the heaviest burden, with the Sahel region in Africa expected to see 66,800 deaths, while researchers project 19,400 across Southeast Asia, 15,800 in India, and 13,300 in Brazil.
  • Governments can mitigate risks through heat-warning systems and cooling centers, which authors say provide an opportunity "to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives."
  • Implementation of well-thought-out plans remains challenging, said Abhiyant Tiwari, a heat expert at NRDC India, who added, "The real measure of our preparedness is not how many heat warnings we issue, but how effectively we protect people and reduce preventable deaths.
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SCIENTISTS estimate that a super El Niño could cause over 450,000 deaths due to extreme heat over the next six months.

·Zagreb, Croatia
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Bias Distribution

  • 59% of the sources are Center
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The Independent broke the news in London, United Kingdom on Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
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