This economist studied 400 years of recessions. His bleak conclusion: stop trying to predict them

This economist studied 400 years of recessions. His bleak conclusion: stop trying to predict them

In the early 18th century, the American colonies suffered a depression-level economic contraction. There was no war. No financial panic. No obvious villain—except, as it turns out, Blackbeard. Atlantic piracy had reached its peak, blockading the port of Charleston and choking off trade routes from the Caribbean to Long Island. Trade collapsed. The money supply collapsed. The economy followed. It’s the kind of cause-and-effect that doesn’t fit ne…