Dow’s 3-Year Winning Run Isn’t a Crash Signal, Still 49% Odds of Double-Digit Gains

There’s a 49% chance the Dow will finish this year up double digits. Here’s why.

We’ve seen three years in a row of double-digit gains. Will there be a fourth?

Dow has 49% chance of double-digit gains

Dow has 49% chance of finishing 2026 with double-digit gains despite prior performances, countering gambler’s fallacy risks [This post contains video, click to play] In Short: – The Dow Jones has a 49% chance of a double-digit gain by 2026. – Market performance is independent of previous years and not influenced by past results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a 49% chance of finishing 2026 with a double-digit gain. For the past three year…

Dow’s 3-Year Winning Run Isn’t a Crash Signal, Still 49% Odds of Double-Digit Gains

Three straight years of double-digit gains have not raised the odds of a Dow Jones Industrial Average pullback. That is the conclusion of MarketWatch contributor Mark Hulbert. The Dow's historical baseline chance of another double-digit year still sits at 49%. A narrative has spread on Wall Street...