Atlantic Region Outlined for a High Chance of Tropical Formation
Tropical Wave #34 has a 70% chance to develop into Tropical Storm Gabrielle, potentially the 7th named storm, amid warmer Caribbean waters increasing hurricane activity.
- On Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center updated its assessment of the eastern Atlantic disturbance, assigning a 70% chance of development through seven days and noting it could become Tropical Storm Gabrielle, the seventh named storm.
- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows activity picking up in mid-September as sea-surface temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf remain warmer than average.
- Moving west at around 15 mph, the disturbance is forecast to track west to west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, with computer forecast models favoring a northward turn before the U.S. coast, similar to Hurricane Erin last month.
- Immediate uncertainty remains because the wave is still far east, and forecasters say the system's strength and path near the United States, Caribbean islands, or Bermuda depend on organization speed and the Bermuda High.
- With the season outlook above normal, AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, `We continue to forecast a high risk for tropical development off the west coast of Africa during the middle to latter portions of this week`, and NOAA expects 13 to 19 named storms with six to 10 hurricanes.
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High chance of tropical formation in the east Atlantic
BATON ROUGE, La. (Louisiana First) — The National Hurricane Center has dubbed a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands a 40% chance of development within the next 48 hours and an 80% chance within the next seven days. Model guidance has the system pulling itself together by the end of this week, going into the weekend. The next name on the hurricane list is Gabrielle. The environmental conditions look to remain conducive for further developme…
Tropical Storm Gabrielle could form this weekend. Here’s what long-range forecast models show
Will a tropical wave that's forecast to develop late this week or early next weekend impact Florida, the U.S. or the Caribbean islands? Here's what the long-range models show.
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Bias Distribution
- 80% of the sources are Center
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