US EditionTexas Latino Shift Undermines GOP Redistricting Plans Ahead of 2026
Trump’s declining Latino support in Texas has made GOP targets more competitive after Democrats outperformed in 2025 special elections by at least 13 points, analysts say.
- The Texas GOP framed its new map around President Donald Trump's 14-point win, but Republican plans to pick off five Democratic-held congressional seats now seem uncertain after Democrats overperformed this year.
- Polling shows Texan Latinos' support for Trump fell from 44% to 32%, and the 2025 UH-TSU survey found increased regret and an 11-point swing to Kamala Harris, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez said.
- Special-Election results this year reveal Democratic candidates outperformed Trump's 2024 margins by at least 13 points in five races, and a CNN poll shows registered voters now prefer Democrats by 5 points in House districts.
- Shifts among Texas Latinos could make four targeted Democratic-held seats, including the 28th District with over 90% Latino, and Monica De La Cruz's 15th District, vulnerable if Latino support declines.
- On the national map, Republicans still expect gains with help from North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio, but Patrick Ruffini and Chuck Rocha warn Latino voters remain swingy and could flip districts.
16 Articles
16 Articles
Republican plans to wrest five Democratic seats in the Texas Congress seemed like a sure thing. They no longer are.
The Memo: Trump’s hold on GOP loosens, a bit
A dramatic defeat on redistricting in Indiana is the latest sign that President Trump’s grip on the GOP is loosening – slightly. Hoosier-state senators on Thursday voted emphatically against a redistricting plan that Trump had pushed with fervor. More than half the 40 Republicans in the 50-member state Senate broke with Trump, dooming the measure…
How Trump’s Redistricting in Texas Could Backfire
CNN: “Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 results in five US House districts with special elections this year by at least 13 points. Over-performance at that level next year would flip three of the five new Texas seats to the Democratic column, though it’s unlikely that performance will be replicated in every district around the country, and recent polling suggests that Democrats currently have a more modest national advantage.”
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 77% of the sources are Center
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
