US EditionThe Last US-Russia Nuclear Treaty Is Expiring. What Now?
The treaty's expiration risks renewed nuclear arms competition amid stalled talks, with U.S. and Russia hesitating to extend or negotiate a new agreement involving China, experts say.
- On February 5, 2026, the New START treaty will expire, ending the last nuclear arms-control agreement between the United States and Russia.
- Administration advisers have weighed political optics tied to the war in Ukraine, delaying bilateral talks as President Donald Trump was noncommittal in January 2026 despite responding positively to Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, several months ago.
- Rising program costs and compliance gaps complicate any quick replacement, as Russia suspended data-sharing in 2023 and U.S. nuclear modernization programs cost billions and lag behind schedule.
- Letting New START lapse could spur reciprocal escalations by Russia and accelerate China's buildup, increasing miscalculation risks and potentially inciting proliferation including in Iran.
- Beijing's refusal to engage until parity is reached keeps China out of any near‑term multilateral deal, while Iran's nuclear program is more advanced than in 2018, raising regional risks.
13 Articles
13 Articles
The United States and Russia could pursue an unstable course of nuclear weapons for the first time since the Cold War, except in the case of a recent agreement, before the expiry of the last arms control treaty, at least one week, according to Reuters.
The validity of the last current agreement on the limitation of strategic offensive weapons between Russia and the USA expires on February 5.
New START Treaty Expiry Raises Nuclear Risk Between U.S. and Russia
Signed in 2010 by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, New START is the last major nuclear arms control agreement between the two countries. It limits strategic warheads to 1,550, caps deployed missiles and bombers at 700, and restricts launchers to 800. The treaty’s goal is to maintain transparency, prevent an arms […] The post New START Treaty Expiry Raises Nuclear Risk Between U.S. and Russia appeared first on Mo…
Salvaging a New START
Foreign Affairs Salvaging a New START It is too late to execute a full reextension of the nuclear arms control agreement, but the U.S. can take steps toward stability with Russia. On February 5, 2026, the New START treaty, the last nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, will expire. Many will be glad to see it go, especially after Russia suspended participation in the treaty’s data-sharing and inspection mechanisms…
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