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Aussie Shares Continue Lower as Rate Hike Worries Weigh

Inflation above the target band is driving the Reserve Bank of Australia to likely raise rates, potentially increasing mortgage costs for 3.5 million households.

  • Markets are pricing about a 70 per cent chance that the RBA will lift the cash rate from 3.6 per cent to 3.85 per cent on February 3.
  • The Australian Bureau of Statistics's December CPI showed headline inflation rose 3.8 and the trimmed mean 3.3, both outside the RBA's 2–3 per cent target band.
  • All four big banks now predict a 0.25 per cent increase when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets next Tuesday, following Capital Economics’ forecast of a rate hike next week.
  • Canstar modelling shows a $600,000 mortgage could cost about $90 more monthly if rates rise to 3.85 per cent, and Roy Morgan data suggests 1.3 million households face mortgage stress.
  • RBA officials note the CPI excludes mortgage servicing costs since 1998, emphasising a one-to-two-year inflation view amid debate on persistence and risks of rapid hikes causing mortgage stress.
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Australian Inflation data points to RBA rate hike

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7NEWS Australia broke the news in Australia on Wednesday, January 28, 2026.
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