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Talarico leads Paxton by 3 points in Texas Senate race: Poll

The poll found Talarico ahead 47% to 44%, with independents backing him by 18 points and Paxton facing weak favorability.

  • On Tuesday, a new Texas Pulse poll released by ReconMR and the Siena Research Institute showed Democratic state Representative James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent.
  • Paxton, recently endorsed by President Donald Trump after defeating Senator John Cornyr, continues facing scrutiny over his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House and ongoing personal scandals that have alienated moderate voters.
  • Talarico holds an 18-point lead among independents and a 10-point advantage among Latino voters, while maintaining roughly $7.5 million more cash on hand than Paxton.
  • Although the race appears competitive, Democrats face an uphill challenge in the Lone Star State, which Trump won by about 14 points in 2024 and has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988.
  • A favorable national environment, driven by economic concerns and declining support for Trump, has fueled Democratic hopes, though Republicans continue attacking Talarico over past remarks regarding meat consumption and faith.
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Trump’s chosen Texas Senate candidate loses to Democrat in poll shocker

A new poll shows James Talarico within the margin of error with Ken Paxton

·London, United Kingdom
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The National Desk broke the news on Tuesday, June 9, 2026.
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