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Talarico expands lead over Paxton in new Texas Senate poll

The survey of 1,048 likely voters gives Talarico his largest general-election lead yet, with affordability and cost of living emerging as the top issue.

  • On Tuesday, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 45% to 40% in a new Texas Public Opinion Research poll, marking Talarico's largest general election lead.
  • The survey of 1,048 likely voters conducted July 15-17 was directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford, though Texas Public Opinion Research labels itself as nonpartisan despite Warford's Democratic ties.
  • Talarico dominates among Black voters and Latino voters , while affordability ranks as the top issue for 44% of voters seeking change in 2026.
  • Paxton's campaign dismissed the poll, arguing "the only poll that matters is November 3rd," while 14% of Texas voters remain undecided with room for movement.
  • Early voting for the 2026 midterms begins October 19 in Texas, as the race remains one of the most closely watched contests with Republicans hoping to consolidate support behind Paxton.
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  • 47% of the sources lean Right
47% Right

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Political Wire broke the news in New York, United States on Tuesday, July 28, 2026.
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