US Edition
Suspicious Polymarket Bets Netted $663K Before Iran Ceasefire
At least 50 wallets placed substantial Yes bets before the announcement, and several accounts earned hundreds of thousands of dollars, AP reported.
- On Tuesday at 19:45 GMT, investors sold a combined 8,600 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures, representing approximately $950 million in bets on falling oil prices.
- Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran at 22:30 GMT on Tuesday, stepping back from prior threats and knocking crude futures down 15% to below $100 a barrel at Wednesday's market open.
- A similar pattern occurred on March 23, when investors sold $500 million in oil futures just 15 minutes before Trump delayed attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, triggering a 15% crude price drop.
- Large orders are rarely executed after settlement, which occurs Monday to Friday at 1830 GMT; traders typically use algorithmic strategies to avoid impacting prices with outsized bets.
- Trading volumes have hit record highs above 1 million lots in recent weeks as volatility has exploded since the war began, complicating hedging and price discovery for market participants.
108 Articles
108 Articles
The Press of Atlantic City
New Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, and lucrative, bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire April 7.
More new accounts on the Polymarket Prediction platform have been made, Tuesday, extremely timely opinions on the conclusion of an ambiguity between the US and Iran, recording hundreds of thousands of dollars' profits, reports The Guardian. The Parises have been made just a few hours before US President Donald Trump announced the closing agreement...
They registered on the platform almost at the end of the expiry of Trump's ultimatum all'Iran and made very specific and timely bets, anticipating by a few minutes the announcement of the U.S. President. Yet there were few signs that they were leaning for an imminent agreement, with the probability of a truce estimated at 35%. Thus about fifty new accounts have earned hundreds of thousands of dollars on the controversial site of online predictio…
Despite Trump's threat that "an entire civilization will die," a number of new accounts have been betting on a ceasefire between the US and Iran, raising questions again about whether people are using inside information to make big money on betting sites.
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