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Suspicious Polymarket Bets Netted $663K Before Iran Ceasefire
Four newly created wallets and a known trader made about $857,000 after betting on a ceasefire hours before the announcement, Lookonchain said.
- On Tuesday at 19:45 GMT, investors sold a combined 8,600 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures, representing approximately $950 million in bets on falling oil prices.
- Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran at 22:30 GMT on Tuesday, stepping back from prior threats and knocking crude futures down 15% to below $100 a barrel at Wednesday's market open.
- A similar pattern occurred on March 23, when investors sold $500 million in oil futures just 15 minutes before Trump delayed attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, triggering a 15% crude price drop.
- Large orders are rarely executed after settlement, which occurs Monday to Friday at 1830 GMT; traders typically use algorithmic strategies to avoid impacting prices with outsized bets.
- Trading volumes have hit record highs above 1 million lots in recent weeks as volatility has exploded since the war began, complicating hedging and price discovery for market participants.
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Although transactions of this type are not uncommon, they are very rarely carried out in large lots - Trading volume and volatility have skyrocketed since the start of the war
Traders place large $950 million bet on oil price falling hours ahead of ceasefire
Investors placed an approximately $950 million bet on oil prices falling just hours before the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire, the latest large wager on the direction of the world's most traded commodity ahead of a major policy announcement by President Donald Trump.
·United Kingdom
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Coverage Details
Total News Sources19
Leaning Left3Leaning Right4Center3Last UpdatedBias Distribution40% Right
Bias Distribution
- 40% of the sources lean Right
40% Right
L 30%
C 30%
R 40%
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