Study Says Climate Change Could Increase Large Hail by 38% to 47% by 2100
Researchers said large hail will become 38% to 47% more common by 2100, while smaller hail may decline as warming strengthens storm updrafts.
- A study published Wednesday in Nature projects large hail will increase between 38% and 47% by 2100, based on computer simulations of more than 14,000 real-world hailstorms from 2014 to 2021.
- Warmer air containing 7% more water vapor per degree Celsius fuels stronger updrafts, allowing hailstones to grow larger, particularly at higher latitudes where temperature increases are sharpest, meteorologist Shiyi Zhang of Peking University explains.
- Meteorologist Qinghong Zhang called this "the first study to make a quantitative estimate of hail hazard events worldwide," with hail costing the U.S. about $10 billion annually and around $80 billion globally.
- Regional impacts vary sharply: Argentina, Europe, Canada and the U.S. Northern Plains will likely see the biggest increase in larger hail, while tropical regions may see damage ease, with validation against recorded storms strengthening the model's credibility.
- Climate scientist Andreas Prein warns large hail around 2 inches can damage vehicles, roofs and solar panels, yet future losses hinge heavily on building practices and infrastructure resilience—concerns highlighted by an April 28 Springfield hailstorm that smashed cars with baseball-sized ice.
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A warming climate may not make hailstorms less frequent. According to a recent study, the risk of giant hail is increasing, especially in Northern Europe and other areas further from the equator, where stronger storms and wetter air create conditions for the formation of larger hailstones.
Hail is one of the most damaging weather phenomena. A new study shows that the frequency of destructive hailstones larger than three centimeters in diameter will increase as global warming continues, with temperate latitudes, including Europe, being among the most at risk.
Hailstorms could grow more dangerous and damaging with climate change
Hailstorms can be incredibly dangerous, posing risks to life and property. Then there's the economic damage to cars, crops, and infrastructure caused by large balls of ice falling at high speed from the sky. And the problems could worsen as our planet heats up.
Rising global hail damage potential in a warming world
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is expected to modify severe convective storms and their associated hazards, including hailstorms, a primary driver of weather-related economic losses1–4. Despite some research on the response of hailstorms to ACC, most studies have focused on regional-scale changes2–9, whereas global-scale assessments of hailstone size remain scarce. Here we show a 36.5–42.1% increase in global hailstorm-induced damage potenti…
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