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Study Foresees Heightened Measles Epidemic Risk for Florida
Researchers said declining childhood MMR coverage could drive recurring waves, with masking and adult catch-up shots helping but not replacing vaccination mandates.
- On September 28, 2026, researchers at the University of Maryland published a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences projecting that removing Florida's school vaccine mandates could spark the largest measles epidemic in nearly 50 years.
- Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo proposed a rule to drop four vaccines from school requirements, while the state's current kindergarten MMR vaccination coverage sits at about 88.9%, below the 95% threshold needed for herd immunity.
- Simulations by lead author Alice Oveson and mathematician Abba Gumel suggest that if kindergarten vaccination falls to 82%, "Florida will experience a pronounced measles outbreak within three to five years," with projected pediatric deaths numbering in the hundreds.
- University of Florida biostatistician Ira Longini questioned the study's methodology, warning the projections could be "a large overestimate" because the model assumes random mixing, whereas measles typically spreads through localized clusters in schools and neighborhoods.
- Beyond Florida, researchers warn that such policy changes could "reignite transmission across the United States," as 3,471 measles cases have been confirmed nationally this year, with Florida's exemption rate currently exceeding the national average.
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14 Articles
14 Articles
The state of Florida is studying the possibility of overturning the mandatory vaccination of triple viral school-age children.
·Guayaquil, Ecuador
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Total News Sources14
Leaning Left1Leaning Right1Center7Last UpdatedBias Distribution78% Center
Bias Distribution
- 78% of the sources are Center
78% Center
11%
C 78%
11%
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