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Study Foresees Heightened Measles Epidemic Risk for Florida
- On September 28, 2026, researchers at the University of Maryland published a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences projecting that removing Florida's school vaccine mandates could spark the largest measles epidemic in nearly 50 years.
- Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo proposed a rule to drop four vaccines from school requirements, while the state's current kindergarten MMR vaccination coverage sits at about 88.9%, below the 95% threshold needed for herd immunity.
- Simulations by lead author Alice Oveson and mathematician Abba Gumel suggest that if kindergarten vaccination falls to 82%, "Florida will experience a pronounced measles outbreak within three to five years," with projected pediatric deaths numbering in the hundreds.
- University of Florida biostatistician Ira Longini questioned the study's methodology, warning the projections could be "a large overestimate" because the model assumes random mixing, whereas measles typically spreads through localized clusters in schools and neighborhoods.
- Beyond Florida, researchers warn that such policy changes could "reignite transmission across the United States," as 3,471 measles cases have been confirmed nationally this year, with Florida's exemption rate currently exceeding the national average.
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16 Articles
16 Articles
The elimination of the obligation of the MMR vaccine (Morbillo-Parotite-Rosolia) for access to school in Florida could trigger the largest measles epidemic in the United States in the last 500 years, causing a wave of paediatric deaths never seen from the pre-vaccinal era. It is the conclusion that a new study led by the mathematicians of the University of Maryland (UMD), published [...] The article "Reduce measles vaccinations can open the way …
·Rome, Italy
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Coverage Details
Total News Sources16
Leaning Left2Leaning Right1Center8Last UpdatedBias Distribution73% Center
Bias Distribution
- 73% of the sources are Center
73% Center
L 18%
C 73%
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