Strong El Nino could push global temperatures above 2C in early 2027
Meteorologists say a 35% to 40% chance remains that one month in early 2027 will exceed the 2C warming threshold.
- Bloomberg reported on Monday that projections from the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science estimate a 35%-40% probability that a single month in early 2027 will breach the 2-degree Celsius threshold above pre-industrial levels, a level never recorded before.
- Caused by warming of surface waters in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, this El Niño is forecasted to be 'very strong'—the highest of four levels at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration—and is among the strongest on record, increasing odds that precipitation shifts will mirror historic impacts.
- Economic losses could reach $3.1 trillion over five years if this event matches the 1997-98 Super El Niño in intensity, according to Cullen Hendrix, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Last month, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and World Food Programme appealed for $202 million to safeguard nearly 9 million people.
- While agricultural yields may improve in the United States and Central Asia, trouble looms for southern Africa, India, and Australia; South Africa's maize sector suffered yields plunging by about 20 percent during strong El Niño events of 1997-98 and 2015-16. Brazil deployed more than 4,600 new federal personnel for wildfire prevention.
- With the world already experiencing the 11 hottest years on record, Hendrix warned the event could cause 'cascading failures in the global food system' and become 'a really significant source of conflict and fragility in the developing world.' Europe has faced record-breaking heat and severe wildfires already.
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A rapidly strengthening El Niño could cause new temperature records, extreme weather and economic damage in 2026 and 2027.
Preparing Agriculture for a New Era of Extreme Weather
Recently, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations put out an alert, warning countries around the world about an impending new El Niño phase that is expected to significantly increase the likelihood of drought, heat waves, storms, and flooding and pose major risks to agriculture across multiple regions. But this is not surprising, […]
Meteorologists warned that the current phenomenon of "El Niño" could be the most intense recorded in the last 150 years; extreme heat is expected by 2027.
El Niño could cause global warming to exceed two degrees. The risk of that happening is 35 percent, according to an American report. “Many people don’t realize how big it is,” says Dean Ben Kirtman.
Scientists warn about record temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This could lead to a particularly hot 2027 year, due to a well-known weather phenomenon
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- 42% of the sources are Center, 42% of the sources lean Right
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