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State revenue projected to drop in current fiscal year

Missouri's FY2026 revenue is projected to drop 2.1% due to recent tax cuts, with a modest 3.8% rebound expected in FY2027 amid budget challenges, officials said.

  • On Wednesday, Missouri's consensus revenue estimate projects a 2.1% decrease in FY2026 to $13.15 billion, with modest growth to $13.65 billion in FY2027, Gov. Mike Kehoe says.
  • Tax changes this year, including a capital gains exemption and top income tax rate reductions, plus fading federal COVID relief, left Missouri Department of Revenue revenues more exposed.
  • Budget documents show reserves were used as estimates put the current-year revenue loss at about $500 million, with ongoing losses near $360 million, and independent estimates near $600 million, warning FY2027 losses could reach $625 million.
  • With spending projected higher than receipts, current budget after Kehoe's vetoes projects $15.7 billion spending, $2.6 billion above estimates, while Missouri lawmakers face $1 billion in department budget requests and Gov. Mike Kehoe will include some surplus funds.
  • Budget officials warn that a $1 billion shortfall starting in FY2027 could force service cuts, as Gov. Mike Kehoe aims to eliminate the income tax, which accounts for about 65% of revenue.
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Missouri general revenue projection indicates growth in FY 2027 despite tax cuts

Missouri general revenue is projected to rise in fiscal year 2027, following two years of lower than expected revenue.

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KMIZ broke the news in on Wednesday, December 17, 2025.
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