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Six Polymarket Accounts Earn $1.2 Million Betting on U.S. Strike on Iran Amid Insider Trading Scrutiny
Six Polymarket accounts collectively earned $1.2 million by betting on the exact date of U.S. strikes in Iran, raising concerns of insider trading amid $529 million in related wagers.
- On Monday, six Democratic U.S. senators asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to review bets on U.S. and Israeli strikes and Khamenei's removal after intense betting around Feb. 28.
- Prediction-Market operators defended federal oversight and crowd forecasts, Polymarket hosted Iran-related markets Monday, and Gambling Is Not Investing led by Mick Mulvaney urged stricter rules.
- Data show $529 million traded on attack-timing contracts and $150 million across two disputed Khamenei contracts, while analytics firm Bubblemaps reported six accounts made $1.2 million profits before the February 28 raids.
- Platforms began reimbursing traders and disputing settlements as Rep. Mike Levin and Sen. Chris Murphy condemned profiting from advance military knowledge, with Kalshi reimbursing fees and markets in dispute.
- Critics flag regulatory overlap between state gambling regulators and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, noting Intercontinental Exchange's US$2 billion stake amid $47 billion global trading in 2025 and Iran's internet blackouts.
108 Articles
108 Articles
Suspicious bets placed just before Trump’s Iran strike trigger calls for federal probe
A consumer watchdog group is calling on the federal agency that regulates prediction markets to investigate what it says are a series of “highly suspicious bets” placed on President Donald Trump’s war with Iran.In a letter sent on Thursday to Michael Selig, the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a representative for the group Public Citizen pointed out that users have been able to make off with six-figure winnings from bet…
The prediction sites, which offer Internet users to bet on the possibility of an event happening, see the criticisms flow.
Polymarket faces allegations of insider trading after suspicious Iran war bets
The online betting company Polymarket is facing scrutiny over allegations of insider trading after bettors made more than 500 million dollars by accurately predicting the date (and time) of the first strikes on Iran last Saturday. Some accounts are being suspected of insider trading, particularly as Donald Trump Jr., the son of the U.S. President is also a shareholder in Polymarket, and may be involved.
Polymarket and Kalshi sites, which offer bets on the war in the Middle East, are controversial: the first to make money on the fear of nuclear power, the second not to want to pay the bets after Ali Khamenei's death.
ledauphine.com
bienpublic.comPolymarket and Kalshi sites, which offer bets on the war in the Middle East, are controversial: the first to make money on the fear of nuclear power, the second not to want to pay the bets after Ali Khamenei's death.
Prediction markets are a national security threat
Hours before an Israeli attack in Tehran killed Ayatollah Khamenei, an account on the prediction market Polymarket made over half a million dollars wagering that Iran’s Supreme Leader would vacate office before 3/31. That account, named “Magamyman,” was not the only one to cash in on the attacks. Half a dozen Polymarket accounts made over $1.2M betting that the U.S. “strikes Iran by February 28, 2026.” Those accounts were allegedly paid for thro…
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