Sinopec Sees China Oil Demand Falling 8.9% in 2026
Sinopec’s research arm sees gasoline and diesel demand falling sharply as China’s refining capacity shrinks and small plants exit the market.
- China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation reported that China's oil demand is expected to fall by 600,000 barrels per day, or 8.9%, in 2026, marking the third consecutive annual decline for the world's largest crude oil importer.
- High oil prices and accelerated adoption of new energy vehicles are destroying demand, with domestic refined oil product consumption declining 8.6% year on year due to these dampening effects.
- Gasoline demand is set for an 8.7% decline while diesel consumption is expected to drop 11.4%, though jet fuel remains the sole transportation petroleum product anticipating growth at 1.3% this year.
- Sinopec's research arm forecasts China's refining capacity will shrink up to 5.5% from 2026 levels by 2030, with small and medium-sized refineries representing up to 100 million tons of capacity expected to exit the market.
- To offset falling fuel sales, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation plans to allocate more capital toward new energy and chemicals by decade's end, aiming to grow revenues and profits despite the lowest domestic fuel sales in nearly a decade.
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China oil demand to fall 8.9% in 2026, Sinopec research says
Sinopec's research arm predicted that China's oil demand would decline by 8.9% in 2026.
In 2026, China ' s oil consumption could decline by 600,000 barrels per day, or 8.9 per cent, compared with the previous year, with demand falling for the third year in a row, and in 2026 it could become the lowest since 2022. This is stated in the forecast by the Institute for Economic and Development Studies (EDRI) of China ' s Oil and Gas Company Sinopec (the main oil processor of the PRC), published on 9 September.
Key takeaways Analysis by the Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute shows that Chinese demand for oil will continue to decline for the third consecutive year. Daily demand By 2026, daily demand is expected to fall by 600,000 barrels, representing a decrease of 8.9 percent compared to 2025. This […]
As the structure of energy consumption changes in China, the world's largest oil importer, a significant decline in oil demand is expected. According to a forecast by the Sinopec Institute for Economic and Development Research, the country's oil demand will decrease by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026. This decrease represents an 8.9% decline on an annual basis.
China's oil demand is expected to decrease by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, or 8.9 percent annually. High oil prices and the rapid spread of electric vehicles are driving this decline, while a decrease in gasoline and diesel consumption is anticipated.
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