Simple ocean-based model forecasts a powerful El Niño, over 2 °C warmer than normal

Simple ocean-based model forecasts a powerful El Niño, over 2 °C warmer than normal

For decades, scientists have worked to improve predictions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate powerhouse that can cause droughts, flooding, marine heat waves, and more around the world. Researchers from the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa have published a study in Geophysical Research Letters showing that they can skillfully predict El Niño and La Niña 15 months ahead of time using only observations of the ocean surface temperature…