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Intervening in Venezuela for the Oil Makes Little Sense

US sanctions cut Venezuelan oil exports nearly in half last month, complicating Trump’s plan to control the country’s vast 303 billion barrel reserves.

  • At a Mar-a-Lago press conference, President Donald Trump said the US would `run the country` and urged United States oil companies to invest billions to rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure.
  • US sanctions and a tanker quarantine have led the Trump administration to confiscate at least two sanctioned oil tankers, while PDVSA cuts crude output as exports fall from about 950,000 bpd to around 500,000 bpd.
  • Analysts note that Venezuela's oil infrastructure and PDVSA suffered years of underinvestment, with Energy Aspects estimating a $10 billion cost to add 500,000 bpd and tens of billions over years for larger recoveries.
  • If sanctions are lifted, Venezuela could reach 2.5 million barrels per day within three to five years from below one million, risking a supply glut that may force OPEC to adjust quotas.
  • With reserves estimated at about 303 billion barrels, past nationalisations, lawsuits and $160 billion in debt mean foreign oil companies will be cautious, requiring debt restructuring and arbitration settlements.
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Bias Distribution

  • 38% of the sources lean Left
38% Left

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DNyuz broke the news in on Sunday, January 4, 2026.
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