Ryanair Pulls Winter Capacity and Warns Rivals May Struggle to Survive
- On Wednesday, Sep 2, 2026, Ryanair cut its fiscal 2027 traffic target to 214 million passengers from 216 million to limit exposure to unhedged oil prices during the winter season.
- Sustained high oil prices are driving the decision, with jet fuel at around $140 a barrel; International Air Transport Association reports prices rose 8.2% month-on-month and 74.2% over the past year.
- Ryanair remains well positioned with 80% of its 2027 jet fuel hedged at roughly $67 per barrel, and the airline operated over 120,500 flights recently with a steady 96% load factor.
- Short-Haul airfares in Europe are likely to increase "materially," and Ryanair warned some competitors will "struggle to maintain capacity or even survive" this winter if oil prices remain high.
- While summer traffic remains on track to grow by more than 5% to 145 million, Ryanair expects traffic from November to March to be "broadly flat," contrasting with Rival Wizz Air's 25.9% passenger growth last month.
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Ryanair reduced its traffic target for the fiscal year 2027 to contain its exposure to unprotected aviation fuel (hedge) during the winter season. Exclusive material for subscribers. To have full access, access the material link and register.
ledauphine.com
Ryanair, Europe's leading airline, anticipates estimated winter losses of between EUR 70 million and EUR 100 million.
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