Western Sanctions and Ukrainian Drone Strikes Push Russian Oil Production to Lowest Since 2009
Western sanctions and Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted refinery output, pushing Russia’s crude production forecast down 17.2 million tons to 494.2 million tons.
- On Tuesday, Russia released a government draft reducing its 2026 oil production projection to a 17-year low, citing the ongoing war with Ukraine as the primary cause for the downward revision, according to Reuters.
- Western sanctions and intensified Ukrainian drone strikes have bottlenecked domestic fuel production, compounding the economic toll. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak earlier attributed the decline to maintenance rather than battlefield impacts.
- Domestic crude production is expected to decline by 17.2 million metric tons this year, dropping to 494.2 million tons. Refined fuel exports will plunge by 27.3 million tons to 98.5 million tons, forcing a temporary increase in raw crude exports to China and India.
- To mitigate widespread shortages, Moscow implemented an export ban on diesel while restricting gasoline and jet fuel sales. Shadow fleet tankers recently delivered 70,000 metric tons of Jet A-1 fuel from South Korea and Egypt.
- Production is projected to recover slightly to 500 million tons in 2027, though output will remain suppressed below 2025 levels through at least 2029. The draft, slated for finalization in late September, reveals the lasting energy sector toll.
17 Articles
17 Articles
Russia has reduced its oil production prospects during the current year to the lowest level in 17 years, and has adjusted its oil and fuel export prospects for 2026 and 2027, given the aftermath of the war with Ukraine.
Russia cuts expected 2026 oil output to 17-year low on war fallout ...
The Russian authorities have revised their estimates of this year's oil production, which would reach the lowest level in the last 17 years, such as forecasts of exports of...
The Russian government lowered its oil production forecast for 2026 to a 17-year low and revised forecast of fuel exports for 2026 and 2027 in connection with the war with Ukraine.
Russia has cut its official forecast for oil production in 2026 to 494.2 million tons (9.88 million barrels per day). This represents a 17-year-old...
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