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Reid Research Poll: National Crashes, Greens Surge, Opportunity Kingmaker

The poll shows National at its weakest since 2020, while Labour also slips and the Greens post their biggest gain this term.

  • New Zealand National Party support fell to 25.9%, its weakest result since the 2020 election, while the opposition Greens climbed to 14.8% in an RNZ-Reid Research poll released on Tuesday.
  • Conducted between September 24 and October 1, the online survey of 1,000 eligible voters adds pressure on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon a month before the November 7 general election.
  • The upstart Opportunity Party polled 5.5%, clearing the 5% threshold to enter Parliament and potentially serving as kingmaker, as neither the National-led coalition nor the Labour-Greens bloc secures a majority.
  • Luxon faces scrutiny as over half of respondents rate his performance poorly, with party MPs reportedly opting against changing leadership during an August meeting despite his polling struggles.
  • Labour leader Chris Hipkins leads preferred prime minister polling 22% to 17% ahead of the first leaders debate, while National Campaign Chair Simeon Brown told Radio NZ the election will be "very close.
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The West AustralianThe West Australian
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Labour, Greens firms as likely NZ election winner

A second poll in as many weeks has confirmed a Greens surge which could tip the left bloc into power in New Zealand.

·Osborne Park, Australia
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Bloomberg broke the news in New York, United States on Monday, October 5, 2026.
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