RBI May Increase Rates by 0.25 Pc in Oct Policy Amid Inflationary Pressures, Experts Poll Shows
A PTI poll of 16 economists and bankers sees a hawkish shift as August inflation hit 4.82% and price pressures widened.
- A PTI poll of 16 economists and bankers expects the Reserve Bank of India to hike the repo rate by 0.25% at the October 7, 2026, monetary policy review amid mounting inflationary pressure.
- Mounting inflationary pressure driven by the re-escalation of the West Asia crisis and global rate hikes has pushed India's retail inflation to an eight-month high of 4.82% in August.
- Rajani Sinha, chief economist at Careedge Ratings, reported that price pressures are broad-based, with "around 19% of the 358 items in the CPI basket" recording inflation above 6% in August, up from 13% in March.
- Experts broadly anticipate a hawkish policy tone and potential upward revision to FY27 GDP growth forecasts, with many predicting two to three total rate hikes over the fiscal year.
- Gaura Sengupta, an economist at IDFC First Bank, stated a rate hike is necessary for "gradual normalisation of policy" to ensure real interest rates do not turn negative in coming quarters.
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RBI may increase rates by 0.25 pc in Oct policy amid inflationary pressures, experts poll shows
The RBI is expected to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in its October policy review as inflation pressures build from higher crude prices, the West Asia conflict and global monetary tightening, according to a PTI poll of economists and bankers. Most also expect a hawkish tone, a higher FY27 inflation forecast and possibly further rate hikes later in the fiscal year.
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