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Qubits Needed to Crack Encryption Fall 200-Fold in Under a Year

Researchers say neutral-atom designs and new error-correction methods cut the qubit estimate from millions to about 10,000.

  • On Tuesday, Caltech and Oratomic researchers proposed that a quantum computer with 10,000 to 20,000 qubits could solve encryption algorithms, drastically reducing prior million-qubit estimates.
  • Led by Manuel Endres, professor of physics at Caltech, the team utilized neutral-atom quantum systems with optical tweezers to move and entangle atoms, encoding logical qubits with as few as five physical qubits.
  • The study suggests a system with 26,000 qubits could break ECC-256 encryption in 10 days, while parallelized architectures with 102,000 qubits would crack RSA-2048 encryption in 97 days.
  • These findings accelerate quantum encryption threats to the end of the decade, whereas scientists previously estimated such powerful machines would require another 10 or 20 years to build.
  • While results are theoretical, scientists emphasize that significant engineering challenges remain to build scalable, fault-tolerant systems, leaving the transition to functional quantum computers not yet guaranteed.
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kiteworks.com broke the news in on Tuesday, February 10, 2026.
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