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Over 150 Polymarket Wallets Linked to Likely Military Insider Trading, Study Finds
ACDC says the wallets earned about $8 million with a 97.2% win rate and may have signaled confidential military information to copycat traders.
- On Thursday, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective reported that 152 Polymarket wallets likely traded on inside U.S. military information, collectively earning $8 million with a 97.2% win rate.
- ACDC identified 556 wallets dubbed 'Orcas,' traders placing highly successful long-shot bets of at least $2,500 in niche markets where insiders possess informational advantages, typically cashing out quickly after winning.
- Evidence suggests military 'Orca' trades attract copycat wagers from deep-pocketed 'Whales' and bots; when an 'Orca' bet on U.S. military action in Iran, copycat wagers reached $200,000 and $100,000 respectively.
- ACDC argues simple identity verification is insufficient, advocating for banning markets where non-public information is most actionable, stating "Limiting the type of people who can bet on prediction markets or relying on law enforcement investigations … will not be enough."
- Policymakers are increasing scrutiny following bets ahead of U.S. military actions, including a soldier charged for betting on Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro's removal, as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pushes for stricter jurisdiction.
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22 Articles
22 Articles
Gamblers have made $8 million betting on military operations
Researchers say the win rate among 152 accounts on Polymarket is so high that they are “the most likely insiders” betting on the site. The post Gamblers have made $8 million betting on military operations appeared first on Task & Purpose.
·New York, United States
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More than 150 Polymarket portfolios have unusually successful betting patterns in markets related to military operations in the United States of America (USA), raising suspicions of possible use of privileged information.
·Lisboa, Portugal
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Coverage Details
Total News Sources22
Leaning Left3Leaning Right5Center5Last UpdatedBias Distribution39% Center, 38% Right
Bias Distribution
- 39% of the sources are Center, 38% of the sources lean Right
39% Center
L 23%
C 39%
R 38%
Factuality
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