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OPEC+ loses oil market sway in Iran war as China gains influence
China has bought about 400 million fewer barrels since the war began, helping cap prices as OPEC+ loses market power, Reuters calculations show.
- Six months into the Iran war, the powerful oil alliance OPEC finds itself unable to influence markets it once helped shape, with policy decisions barely moving oil prices anymore.
- Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and damaged energy infrastructure have eroded OPEC's global output share to about 40% from more than 48% before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February.
- Since the war began, China has bought roughly 400 million fewer barrels of oil than during the same period last year, helping place a ceiling on prices throughout 2026.
- China now acts as the primary market balancer, a role once held exclusively by OPEC. "They've become the swing demand centre," said June Goh, an analyst at Sparta Commodities.
- Unlike historical wartime disruptions such as the Gulf War, the group's current inability to offset losses marks a significant shift; OPEC decisions were once closely watched by traders and President Donald Trump.
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Is China Replacing OPEC+ as the Key Force in Global Oil Markets?
Six months into the Iran war, OPEC+ is facing an unprecedented challenge to its influence over global oil markets. The alliance, which once had considerable power to shape prices by adjusting production, is now struggling to offset supply disruptions caused by the war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
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Total News Sources9
Leaning Left1Leaning Right3Center4Last UpdatedBias Distribution50% Center
Bias Distribution
- 50% of the sources are Center
50% Center
13%
C 50%
R 37%
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