Oil-price bets ahead of Iran war news totalled $7 billion, reporting shows
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Justice Department are investigating suspicious short oil bets totaling $7 billion placed across global exchanges immediately before major U.S.-Iran policy announcements in March and April.
- Market experts describe these trades as "well informed," with large sell orders consistently executed 15 to 20 minutes before announcements that triggered significant oil price declines.
- On April 7, sell orders worth $2.12 billion preceded a ceasefire announcement by minutes; on April 21, $830 million in contracts sold 15 minutes before Trump extended that ceasefire.
- Warning that "those quantities are not going to escape scrutiny," lawyer Robert Frenchman at Dynamis LLP noted regulators are focused on the trades, while the CFTC's enforcement director confirmed the agency is "watching."
- Senator Elizabeth Warren and other lawmakers suspect insider leaks, though digital betting platforms and prediction markets complicate investigations into potentially well-informed wagers.
21 Articles
21 Articles
Oil-price bets ahead of Iran war news raise suspicions
LONDON — A series of welltimed market bets on falling oil prices totaling as much as $7 billion during March and April spread across multiple exchanges and types of fuel and derivatives just before major Iranian policy announcements by President…
Oil Trader Nets Estimated $125 Million on Suspiciously Timed Bet Ahead of U.S.-Iran Deal Report
Nearly 10,000 crude oil short contracts, valued at approximately $920 million, were placed at 3:40 a.m. on Wednesday, May 6, without any major news event, according to market commentary platform the Kobeissi Letter. At 4:50 a.m., Axios reported that Washington and Tehran were nearing an agreement to end the conflict and resume negotiations. Oil prices dropped more than 12% within two hours of the report, generating an estimated $125 million prof…
The U.S. Department of Justice and a federal agency that oversees certain gambling markets are investigating a series of oil-price bets that were made shortly before President Donald Trump and an Iranian official made announcements about the war against Iran.
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