Oil jumps 10% on Iran conflict and could spike to $100 a barrel, analysts say
Brent crude rose 10% to $80 amid fears of a Strait of Hormuz closure disrupting 20% of global oil flows and pushing prices toward $100, analysts said.
- On March 1, Brent crude surged 10% to about $80 a barrel after U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran, with analysts warning prices could reach $100 amid Strait of Hormuz risks.
- Tanker owners, oil majors and trading houses suspended shipments via the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran warned ships, and reports said the strait is closed for navigation.
- Analysts predict prices could rise by $20 to about $92 a barrel when trade opens, as Parmar said: `We expect prices to open much closer to $100 a barrel and perhaps exceed that level if we see a prolonged outage of the Strait.`
- OPEC+ moved to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day from April, a modest increase under 0.2% of demand, while a closure could cost 8 million to 10 million bpd, Rystad energy economist Jorge Leon said.
- Markets already show rotation as U.S. consumers may see pump price effects by late March, with the iShares S&P Global Energy ETF and iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF up 24% and 14%.
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Trump’s Iran War Could Send Oil Prices Past $100 a Barrel
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If disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, oil prices could surge beyond $100 per barrel, adding to the burden on the state budget for fuel subsidies.
Maritime transport via the Strait of Ormuz, through which 20% of world oil consumption transits, is currently suspended.
Brent has peaked since July last year.
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